Victorian Catholic employers’ staff numbers ploy doesn’t add up
Where did the extra 10,000 employees come from?
Performing a numerical backflip worthy of a Winter Olympics ski jumper, Victorian Catholic education employers are seeking to undermine the IEU’s application to the Fair Work Commission (FWC) for fair bargaining rights by inflating their workforce from under 35,000 to nearly 45,000.
Over Term 4, 2025, the IEU collected Statements of Support from nearly 19,000 staff across Victorian Catholic education backing our application for a Single Interest Authorisation (SIA). We needed to establish majority support for the FWC to grant an SIA, which ensures basic industrial rights in bargaining. And on any normal, publicly stated workforce baseline, we had a clear majority across the state – and across every mainstream employer – at the end of 2025.
So what changed?
Not the workforce. The number.
As recently as October, the body representing Catholic employers, the Victorian Catholic Education Authority (VCEA), publicly referred to employing 35,000 staff. On its website, as of 6 February 2026, it stated it employed 32,500 teachers and staff. Yet the headcount employers provided to the independent ballot agent appointed for the Commission’s checking process jumped to 44,970.
That is not a rounding error. That is a 10,000‑person swing – enough to reverse the majority across 9 out of 33 employers.
Despite these tactics, the push for fair bargaining rights appears to have a clear majority in the other 24 employers, even on the inflated employer numbers. See below for a full list of indicative majorities.
IEU General Secretary David Brear says the VCEA’s latest delaying ploy is “disappointing but not surprising,” given the employers’ track record.
“Employers have chosen a drawn-out dispute. That’s unfortunate, but we are ready. This is predictable behaviour from these employers. During a teacher shortage crisis exacerbated by pay and conditions lagging behind other states, it seems employers are confusing the number of staff we’d all like to see in schools with the actual numbers they employ.”
The workforce didn’t suddenly grow by 10,000 - but the cited number did.
The numbers don’t add up
Here are the workforce baselines that Catholic employers and independent public data agencies have put on the record:
VCEA website: 32,500 teachers and staff.
VCEA media release (6 Oct): 35,000 employees.
VCEA Chair James Merlino on ABC Radio (6 Oct): “right now there are 35,000 staff in Victorian Catholic schools”
ABS (2024): 32,626 in‑school staff in Victorian Catholic education.
School profile / MySchool totals (2025): around 33,000 staff in Catholic schools.
Yet on 2 February 2026, employers told the ballot agent that they employed 44,970 staff between 11 November and 9 December 2025.
If employers want the Commission – and school staff – to believe there are nearly 45,000 employees in Victorian Catholic education, there is a simple question they must answer:
Where are they?
IEU members aren’t reporting dozens of new faces in staff rooms. Schools weren’t suddenly overrun by new recruits late last year – at precisely the moment staff were signing Statements of Support. There was no visible surge. No wave. No “10,000‑person” expansion in the workforce anyone could actually see.
Yes, casual staff engaged during the relevant window can be counted. But it beggars belief that casual engagement alone explains a 10,000‑person jump – especially when schools are crying out for more staff, not reporting an overflow.
Staff across the sector are dealing with crushing workload, safety issues, and cost‑of‑living pressures. If employers truly had 10,000 extra staff available, schools would be feeling it. They aren’t.
Maybe the VCEA calculators overheated in the recent heatwave – or a few beads dropped off their abacus. Whatever happened, it wasn’t a real world staffing boom.
Why this matters
This isn’t just a numbers fight. It’s about whether staff in Victorian Catholic education get the bargaining rights other workers take for granted – rights that enable them to negotiate with their employer on a level playing field.
The IEU seeks to negotiate the next Victorian Catholic Agreement under an SIA so staff finally have access to basic bargaining tools – including protected industrial action and Fair Work Commission good faith bargaining orders – just like Catholic education staff interstate and workers in almost every other industry.
Employers could agree to this at any time and avoid a drawn-out dispute. Instead, they appear determined to fight the campaign for fair bargaining rights to the bitter end – and now they’re trying to do it by inflating the denominator.
This ploy is anti‑worker and deeply at odds with the values Catholic employers publicly claim to stand for.
IEU: we’re ready
The VCEA’s actions show these employers will continue delaying bargaining by any means – and then try to blame the union. The IEU is its members – and IEU members are determined to win! Every Statement of Support was documented person by person, conversation by conversation. That is hard work, but every time we talked to a staff member about the campaign, we grew and gained strength.
David Brear notes that members were already frustrated by employers’ determination “to do anything but sit down and properly negotiate with an empowered workforce.”
“Tactics like this will only redouble the resolve of our members. The IEU will vigorously contest these new VCEA figures and proceed with our SIA submission to the Fair Work Commission. Members rejected an inadequate short-term pay offer that bypassed their right to have their Log of Claims properly discussed. They aren’t letting up now. The IEU will push on, determined that the Fair Work Commission makes a decision based on facts.”
Indicative majorities of staff in favour of a Single Interest Authorisation as of 9 February 2026
Antonine College
Catholic Ladies College
Edmund Rice Education Australia Victorian Schools
Genazzano FCJ College
Jesuit Social Services
Kildare Education Ministries
Loreto Ballarat
Loreto Mandeville Hall Toorak
Marist Schools Australia
Mater Christi College
Mercy Education
Monivae College
Mount St. Joseph Girls’ College – Altona West
Our Lady of Sion College
Our Lady of The Sacred Heart College
Sacre Coeur
Salesian College Chadstone
Salesian College Sunbury
Santa Maria College
Siena College
St Kevin’s College
Star of the Sea College
Villa Maria Catholic Homes
Whitefriars College
